Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday said India is likely to see a normal monsoon in 2024, promising some relief to the fight against inflation.

This could be a major respite from the predictions of a severe heatwave in North India.

As per the forecast, the Monsoon rains are expected to be 102% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for June to September with a model error of plus and minus 5%.

The nationwide LPA for the four-month period is around 87 cm. Cumulative monsoon rains nationwide between 96-104 per cent of LPA is considered as ‘normal’.

“In its earlier foreshadow released on January 12, 2024, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2024 to be ‘normal’ and retains the same,” Skymet said in a statement.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another factor influencing southwest monsoon in India, is also expected to remain positive this year.

“A preliminary forecast of positive IOD this season will work in tandem with La Nina for better monsoon prospects.Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and equitable for the season, as a whole,” Skymet said.

Speaking on the report, Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet said, “El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon.”

“However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase,” he added.

Giving the area-wise breakout of the monsoon this season, Skymet said it expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West and Northwest India. Core monsoon rainfed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will also receive adequate rainfall.

The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal may get deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.

In terms of the month-wise pattern of rainfall, the Skymet said there is 45% of cumulative national monsoon rainfall in June to be normal and 25% chance of it being below normal or deficient.

June gets around 16.53 centimeters of rainfall out of the total 87 centimeters while in July, there is a 60% chance of the southwest monsoon being normal. July gets around 28 centimeters of rainfall.

Further, the report said August has a chance of having 50% normal southwest monsoon and 20% chance above normal.

August gets 25.4 centimeters of rainfall. July and August is the time when India gets the most rainfall during the southwest monsoon. In September, there is a 60% chance of the southwest monsoon being normal in 2024 while 20% chance of it being above normal. September gets around 16.7 centimeters of total monsoon rainfall.